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Prediction Market Converter
Convert prediction market prices (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt) to traditional betting odds and vice versa.
Convert Market Price to Betting Odds
YES Odds
-186
⟷
NO Odds
+186
YES Probability
65.0%
NO Probability
35.0%
Decimal (YES)
1.54
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets (like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt) let you buy "shares" in outcomes. If the event happens, YES shares pay $1.00. If not, they're worth $0. The current price reflects the market's implied probability.
📐 The Conversion
Price in cents = Implied probability %
A YES at 65¢ = 65% implied probability = -186 American odds
The corresponding NO at 35¢ = 35% probability = +186 odds
Quick Reference
| Market Price | Probability | American Odds | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | 10.00 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | 4.00 |
| 33¢ | 33% | +200 | 3.00 |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | 2.00 |
| 65¢ | 65% | -186 | 1.54 |
| 75¢ | 75% | -300 | 1.33 |
| 90¢ | 90% | -900 | 1.11 |
Finding Value: Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks
Compare odds between prediction markets and sportsbooks to find discrepancies. If Polymarket has an outcome at 60¢ (-150) but a sportsbook offers +120, there may be value on one side.
Advantages of Prediction Markets
- Often more liquid for political/event markets
- No vig on most platforms (you trade against other users)
- Can exit positions before resolution
- More exotic markets unavailable at sportsbooks