Track your Closing Line Value - the best predictor of long-term success
Add your bets to calculate average CLV over time
CLV measures whether you got better odds than the final (closing) line. The closing line is considered the most efficient because it incorporates all available information. Consistently beating the closing line indicates you're finding value before the market corrects.
CLV = (Closing Implied Probability - Your Implied Probability)
If you bet at -105 (51.22% implied) and the line closed at -115 (53.49% implied), your CLV is +2.27%.
| Average CLV | What It Means | Long-Term Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| < -2% | Consistently getting bad lines | Significant losses expected |
| -2% to 0% | Slightly behind the market | Likely losing to the vig |
| 0% to 2% | Beating the closing line | Likely profitable long-term |
| > 2% | Significant edge | Strong profits expected |
CLV is a better predictor of long-term success than short-term win/loss records. A bettor with +3% CLV might have a losing week but will almost certainly profit over thousands of bets. Focus on process (CLV) not results.