Find out if a bet has positive expected value (+EV)
Your estimated probability (45%) is higher than the implied probability (40%). Over time, this bet should be profitable.
EV = (Win Prob × Profit) - (Loss Prob × Stake)
A positive EV means the bet is profitable long-term. Negative EV means you'll lose money over time.
Your edge = Your estimated probability - Book's implied probability
If you estimate a team has 50% chance to win, but the odds imply only 40%, you have a 10% edge.
EV calculations depend on the accuracy of your probability estimate. Overestimating your edge leads to -EV betting. Be honest with yourself!
| Odds | Implied % | Your Est % | EV per $100 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +200 | 33.3% | 40% | +$20.00 | ✅ +EV |
| -110 | 52.4% | 55% | +$4.55 | ✅ +EV |
| -150 | 60.0% | 55% | -$8.33 | ❌ -EV |
| +150 | 40.0% | 40% | $0.00 | ➖ Neutral |