Break Even Calculator
Find out exactly what win rate you need to break even at any given odds. The foundation of profitable betting.
Calculate Required Win Rate
What Is the Break Even Win Rate?
The break even win rate is the minimum percentage of bets you need to win to not lose money at a given odds. It's the same as the implied probability built into the odds.
📐 The Formula
Break Even % = Risk / (Risk + Potential Profit) × 100
At -110 odds: $110 / ($110 + $100) = 52.38%
Why This Matters
If you're betting -110 (standard juice), you need to win 52.38% of your bets just to break even. To be profitable, you need to exceed this threshold consistently—that extra 2.38% is the sportsbook's edge.
Break Even Reference Chart
| American Odds | Decimal | Break Even % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| -200 | 1.50 | 66.67% | Heavy favorite |
| -150 | 1.67 | 60.00% | Moderate favorite |
| -130 | 1.77 | 56.52% | Slight favorite |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.38% | Standard vig |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.00% | Even money |
| +110 | 2.10 | 47.62% | Slight underdog |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% | Moderate underdog |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% | Underdog |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.00% | Long shot |
Finding an Edge
Professional bettors don't just try to beat 50%—they identify situations where their true win probability exceeds the break even threshold.
Example
If a bet at -110 has a break even of 52.38%, but you estimate the true probability at 55%, you have a 2.62% edge. Over hundreds of bets, this edge compounds into profit.
💡 Pro Tip
The key to profitable betting: find spots where your estimated probability exceeds the break even %. Use our EV Calculator to quantify your edge.