What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run.
The EV Formula
EV = (Win Probability × Amount Won) - (Loss Probability × Amount Lost)
Goal: Place bets where EV is positive (+EV) — profitable over time.
1 How to Calculate EV
Example Calculation
Odds: +200 (Implied = 33.3%)
Your estimate: 50% chance of winning
EV = (0.50 × $200) - (0.50 × $100) = +$50 ✅
2 Why EV Matters More Than Win Rate
❌ High Win Rate, Losing
60% wins at -200 odds may still lose money
✅ Lower Win Rate, Profitable
40% wins at +200 odds can be very profitable
Key Takeaway
Focus on value, not just picking winners.
3 Common EV Mistakes
⚠️ Avoid These
- Overestimating your edge
- Betting too big on single +EV plays
- Expecting every +EV bet to win
End of Lesson Checklist
- I understand the EV formula
- I know why EV matters more than win rate
- I can identify value bets using EV thinking
🎯 Next Lesson
In Lesson 4, we'll cover Tracking Bets, ROI & CLV!