What Are Correlated Plays?
Bets where the outcome of one wager is strongly linked to another.
Example
If a team covers a large spread, the total may go over (high-scoring blowout).
1 Identifying Correlated Markets
| Correlated Market | Why |
|---|---|
| Team -Spread + Over | If team dominates, more points |
| Team +Spread + Under | Close, low-scoring game |
| 1H Spread + Full Game | Fast starters maintain lead |
| QB yards Over + Game Over | High passing = more points |
2 When Parlays Are Profitable
Standard parlays = bad value due to house edge. Exception: Parlays of correlated outcomes when books don't adjust odds properly.
Key Rule
Only parlay when correlation exists and price isn't adjusted.
3 Hedging Strategies
Hedging: Placing an additional bet to guarantee profit or reduce risk on existing wager.
Hedging Example
Bet $100 on Team A to win tournament at +1000
They reach finals. Opponent is -120 favorite.
Hedge: Bet on opponent to ensure profit no matter who wins.
4 How to Hedge Properly
- Calculate potential win on original bet
- Find hedge odds
- Use hedge calculator to find stake
- Place appropriate hedge to guarantee profit
5 Common Mistakes
⚠️ Avoid These
- Parlaying random bets without correlation
- Hedging unnecessarily, cutting profits short
- Overestimating correlation
End of Lesson Checklist
- I understand correlated plays
- I know when parlays can be profitable
- I understand hedging strategies
- I know when NOT to hedge or parlay
🎯 Next Lesson
In Lesson 4, we'll cover Arbitrage Betting & Risk-Free Profits!