What is a Betting Model?
A betting model is a system or formula that helps you evaluate games and determine if a bet is worth making.
Goal of a Model
- Remove guesswork and emotions
- Find consistent value in lines
- Stay disciplined and data-driven
1 Types of Betting Models
| Model Type | What It Does | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| Power Ratings | Rates teams based on stats | Beginners |
| Statistical Projection | Predicts game outcomes | Intermediate |
| Situational | Uses rest, injuries, travel | All levels |
| Market-Based | Adjusts based on line moves | Advanced |
2 Building a Simple Model (7 Steps)
📋 Step-by-Step Process
- Pick a sport & market (e.g., NFL spreads)
- Choose key stats (yards/play, turnover diff, etc.)
- Gather data (ESPN, Pro Football Reference)
- Assign weights to each stat
- Rate each team based on weighted stats
- Set your own line (projected spread)
- Compare to sportsbook — look for value
3 Example: NFL Model Stats
Key NFL Stats to Track
- Yards per play (40%)
- Turnover differential (30%)
- 3rd down % (20%)
- Red zone efficiency (10%)
Finding Value
Your model says: Team A should be -3
Sportsbook has: Team A +2
Result: Value bet on Team A!
4 Common Model Mistakes
⚠️ Avoid These
- Using too many stats (overcomplicating)
- Ignoring situational factors
- Over-trusting model without context
- Not updating data weekly
Pro Tip:
Start simple. You can always add complexity later.End of Lesson Checklist
- I understand what a betting model is
- I know the 7 steps to build a basic model
- I can identify key stats for my sport
- I know how to compare my projections to sportsbook lines
🎯 Next Lesson
In Lesson 6, we'll cover Market Inefficiencies + take the Stage 3 Quiz!