Welcome to Lesson 2!
Understanding odds is crucial to becoming a profitable bettor. In this lesson, you'll learn how to read odds, convert them to probability, and use that knowledge to find value.
1 What Are Betting Odds?
Odds are the numbers set by sportsbooks that show how much you can win and the likelihood of a specific outcome happening.
American Odds Format
- Positive (+) odds = Underdog (higher payout)
- Negative (-) odds = Favorite (lower payout)
2 How to Read American Odds
Positive Odds: +200
Bet $100 to win $200
Total return: $300 (your $100 + $200 profit)
Negative Odds: -150
Bet $150 to win $100
Total return: $250 (your $150 + $100 profit)
Quick Reference
- +100 = Bet $100 to win $100 (even money)
- +150 = Bet $100 to win $150
- -110 = Bet $110 to win $100 (standard juice)
- -200 = Bet $200 to win $100
3 What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability tells you what the odds represent as a percentage chance of happening.
Why It Matters
Helps you understand if the bet has value. If you think a team has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest, that's a value bet!
4 Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Positive Odds Formula
100 ÷ (Odds + 100) × 100
Example: +200
100 ÷ (200 + 100) × 100 = 33.3%
Negative Odds Formula
Odds ÷ (Odds + 100) × 100
Example: -150
150 ÷ (150 + 100) × 100 = 60%
| Odds | Implied Probability | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| +400 | 20% | Big underdog |
| +200 | 33.3% | Underdog |
| +100 | 50% | Even money |
| -110 | 52.4% | Slight favorite |
| -150 | 60% | Favorite |
| -200 | 66.7% | Strong favorite |
| -300 | 75% | Heavy favorite |
5 Finding Value Bets
Understanding probability helps you compare the real chance of something happening vs. the odds offered.
✅ Value Bet (Good)
Odds: +200 (33% implied)
You believe team has 50% chance
This is a value bet! Real odds are better than the book's.
❌ Bad Bet (Avoid)
Odds: -150 (60% implied)
You believe team has 50% chance
This is a bad bet! You're overpaying for the favorite.
6 Why This Makes You Smarter
🧠 Think Like a Sharp Bettor
- Stop betting on "favorites" just because they look safe
- Learn to bet based on probability, not feelings
- Find underdogs that are undervalued by the public
- Avoid overpaying for juicy-looking parlays
End of Lesson Checklist
- I can read positive and negative American odds
- I understand implied probability
- I can convert odds to probability
- I know how to identify value bets
🎯 Next Lesson Preview
In Lesson 3, we'll cover Line Shopping — how comparing odds across sportsbooks can significantly boost your profits!