Washington Commanders Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

Washington's abysmal performance as large favorites stems from a franchise that has consistently struggled with the psychological weight of expectations. The Commanders organization has been plagued by instability at quarterback, coaching turnover, and front office dysfunction that creates a team ill-equipped to handle the pressure of being heavily favored. When installed as large favorites, Washington often faces opponents with nothing to lose while carrying the burden of justifying inflated spreads. The franchise's historical inconsistency manifests most clearly in these spots because large favorite situations typically arise against weaker opponents where execution and focus matter more than raw talent. Washington's tendency toward mental lapses, penalties, and conservative play-calling becomes magnified when they're expected to dominate. The team has rarely possessed the type of explosive offensive identity or suffocating defense that allows for comfortable victories against overmatched opponents. Smart bettors should view Washington as a large favorite as an automatic fade opportunity, particularly in divisional games where familiarity breeds closer contests. The trend holds strongest when Washington is laying more than a touchdown against teams with interim coaches or in desperate situations, as these opponents often play with house money while the Commanders buckle under expectation.