The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs conference opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 11-15-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -19.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +19.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record11-15-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size26 games
ROI-19.2%
Units Won-5.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20240-5-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Buccaneers' struggles against conference opponents stem from their historically inconsistent defensive schemes and tendency to play down to competition within the NFC. Tampa Bay's defensive coordinators have frequently struggled to adapt their game plans when facing familiar divisional rivals and conference foes who have extensive film study and understand their tendencies. The team's secondary has been particularly vulnerable to precision passing attacks from NFC quarterbacks who exploit their aggressive coverage schemes. Tampa Bay's offensive identity crisis compounds these issues against conference opponents. The franchise has cycled through multiple offensive philosophies, from ground-and-pound approaches to pass-heavy systems, creating predictability that savvy NFC defensive coordinators exploit. Their red zone efficiency particularly suffers against conference teams that understand their personnel packages and formation tendencies. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. The Buccaneers have historically carried the weight of being underdogs in their own conference, leading to pressing situations where they abandon their game plan early when trailing. This manifests in poor clock management and questionable play-calling decisions in crucial moments. For bettors, the key insight is targeting Tampa Bay's conference opponents when the Bucs are favored, as they consistently fail to cover in these spots. This trend matters most during divisional games and conference playoff races when familiarity breeds contempt.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers's ATS record as vs conference opponent?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an 11-15-0 ATS record when playing against conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.3% ATS win rate over 26 games.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as vs conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -19.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against the spread in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Buccaneers' 42.3% ATS win rate against conference opponents is below the expected 50% break-even point for profitable betting. Their -19.2% ROI significantly underperforms compared to typical league averages, making them a poor betting choice in this situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.