The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 12-23-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -34.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +34.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-23-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size35 games
ROI-34.5%
Units Won-12.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20182-1-00.0%+27.3%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20241-4-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Buccaneers' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reveal a franchise historically ill-equipped to handle the psychological weight of expectation during adversity. Tampa Bay's organizational culture has long been defined by inconsistency and emotional volatility, traits that become magnified when the team faces public pressure to "bounce back" as betting favorites. When the Bucs enter games as favorites after three consecutive losses, they're typically facing inferior opponents at home or in perceived get-right spots. However, this creates a dangerous dynamic where the team often plays tight, pressing for explosive plays rather than executing fundamental football. The franchise's tendency toward boom-or-bust offensive philosophies historically clashes with the methodical approach needed to cover spreads against motivated underdogs who smell blood in the water. Tampa Bay's coaching staffs have consistently struggled with game management in these pressure-cooker situations, often abandoning what's working in favor of forcing big plays to silence critics quickly. This leads to turnovers, special teams breakdowns, and defensive lapses that keep inferior opponents within striking distance. This trend matters most in divisional games and primetime spots where the Bucs face maximum scrutiny and opponents arrive with extra motivation to deliver a knockout punch.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 12-23-0 ATS record as favorites following a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 34.3% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Buccaneers as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is not profitable, with a -34.5% ROI. This trend has consistently failed to cover the spread over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the typical NFL favorite ATS win rate of approximately 50%. The Buccaneers' 34.3% ATS rate in this situation is well below league standards for favorites.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.