Seattle Seahawks Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Seattle Seahawks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Seattle Seahawks are just 5-16-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -54.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +54.5%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Seahawks' struggles as large favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between their defensive identity and the expectations that come with massive point spreads. Seattle built their championship culture around suffocating defense and controlling field position, not explosive offensive performances that typically justify laying double digits. When oddsmakers install them as heavy chalk, it usually signals an opponent perceived as significantly overmatched, creating a dangerous psychological dynamic. Pete Carroll's teams have historically thrived as underdogs or in competitive spots where their physical, grinding style translates effectively. However, when forced to cover large numbers, the Seahawks often lack the offensive firepower to pull away convincingly. Their run-heavy approach and conservative passing game can produce steady drives but rarely generate the explosive plays needed to build comfortable margins against NFL competition that's fighting desperately to stay competitive. The franchise's championship window also coincided with their best performance in this spot, suggesting that personnel quality matters significantly when laying big numbers. As the roster aged and key defensive pieces departed, their ability to dominate inferior opponents diminished accordingly. This trend carries the most weight when Seattle faces rebuilding teams or backup quarterbacks, precisely the scenarios where large spreads typically emerge.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Seattle Seahawks's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Seattle Seahawks have a 5-16-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This translates to a 23.8% cover rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Seattle Seahawks as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Seattle Seahawks as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -54.5% ROI. This represents significant losses for bettors backing Seattle in these spots.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the league average, as NFL teams typically cover around 50% of their games ATS. The Seahawks' 23.8% cover rate as large favorites is exceptionally poor compared to standard expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.