San Francisco 49ers vs Non-Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The San Francisco 49ers show mixed results as vs non-conference opponent. Since 2014, they're 20-19-0 against the spread—a 0.0% win rate with an ROI of -2.1%. While not a strong standalone angle, this data provides valuable context when combined with other factors.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2015 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2016 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2017 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The 49ers' mediocre performance against non-conference opponents stems from their identity as a defensively-oriented team that thrives on familiarity and preparation. Kyle Shanahan's complex offensive schemes require extensive game-planning and personnel adjustments that become more challenging when facing unfamiliar AFC opponents they encounter just once every four years. The team's defensive success relies heavily on film study and pattern recognition, advantages that diminish significantly against non-conference teams with different offensive philosophies and personnel groupings. San Francisco's coaching staff excels at making in-season adjustments within their division, but this expertise becomes less valuable against AFC opponents where there's no accumulated knowledge base. The team's recent struggles in these matchups often coincide with their tendency to start slow offensively while the defense adapts to unfamiliar offensive concepts and play-calling tendencies. The key insight for bettors is to fade San Francisco in early-season non-conference matchups when their preparation time is limited, but consider backing them in later-season interconference games when Shanahan has had more time to install specific game plans. This trend carries the most weight in September and October games when the 49ers haven't yet hit their typical mid-season stride.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?
The San Francisco 49ers have a 20-19-0 ATS record when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 51.3% ATS win rate over 39 games.
Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as vs non-conference opponent profitable?
Betting on the San Francisco 49ers against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -2.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite a slightly above .500 ATS record, the negative return indicates poor betting value.
How does this compare to the league average?
The 49ers' 51.3% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents is slightly above the typical 50% baseline expected in spread betting. However, the -2.1% ROI suggests underperformance when factoring in betting juice and market efficiency.
ANALYZE This Trend
This trend is near break-even. Combine with other factors and compare odds before placing any bets.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.