San Francisco 49ers Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The 49ers' struggles as large favorites stem from their organizational approach to roster management and game philosophy. San Francisco has historically operated with a "next man up" mentality, often resting key players or reducing their workload when games appear comfortable. This conservative approach makes sense for long-term health but creates nightmare scenarios for bettors backing heavy chalk. Kyle Shanahan's offensive system relies heavily on rhythm and timing, which can become disrupted when the team shifts into clock-management mode too early. The 49ers also tend to face their largest spreads against divisional opponents who know their schemes intimately, creating competitive games that don't reflect the betting line. Their defensive approach under DeMeco Ryans prioritizes bend-don't-break principles, allowing opponents to move the ball while preventing explosive plays - a recipe for closer-than-expected final scores. The franchise's injury-prone nature compounds these issues, as key contributors often play limited snaps in blowout scenarios to preserve health for playoff runs. When stars like Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel see reduced touches in the second half, offensive efficiency plummets. This trend matters most in divisional matchups and games following bye weeks, when the 49ers typically enter as substantial favorites but face motivated, well-prepared opponents.