The public often underestimates the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the San Francisco 49ers hold a record of 9-1-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +71.8% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $7 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record9-1-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI+71.8%
Units Won+7.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20221-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20242-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The 49ers' exceptional performance as home underdogs after wins stems from a potent combination of organizational pride and tactical advantages that oddsmakers consistently undervalue. San Francisco's coaching staff, particularly under Kyle Shanahan, has demonstrated remarkable ability to exploit the disrespect embedded in home underdog lines following victories. The team's veteran leadership core takes these situations personally, viewing home underdog status after a win as a direct challenge to their championship aspirations. The franchise's recent success has created a culture where players expect to be favored at home, making underdog lines particularly motivating. Shanahan's offensive system thrives when the team feels overlooked, as it allows for more aggressive play-calling and creative formations that catch opponents off-guard. The 49ers' defensive unit, anchored by elite talent, historically performs at its peak when facing teams expected to win at Levi's Stadium. For bettors, this trend represents exceptional value when the 49ers are catching points at home following a victory, especially against teams with winning records. The market appears to overweight recent opponent quality while undervaluing San Francisco's proven ability to elevate their performance when disrespected. This trend matters most when the 49ers face divisional rivals or playoff contenders as home underdogs after convincing wins.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The San Francisco 49ers have an outstanding 9-1-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 90% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the 49ers as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 71.8% ROI. Despite being favored to lose by oddsmakers, the 49ers have consistently covered the spread in this scenario.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 90% ATS win rate significantly outperforms typical league averages, which hover around 50% for most betting situations. The 49ers' 71.8% ROI in this spot represents exceptional value compared to standard NFL betting returns.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.