The data suggests caution when backing the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the San Francisco 49ers are just 19-23-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record19-23-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size42 games
ROI-13.6%
Units Won-5.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-3-00.0%+19.3%
20152-0-00.0%+90.9%
20160-5-00.0%-100.0%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20212-3-00.0%-23.6%
20223-1-00.0%+43.2%
20230-4-00.0%-100.0%
20244-2-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The 49ers' struggles at home following multiple losses reveal a franchise caught between high expectations and execution breakdowns. San Francisco's organizational culture, built around precision and discipline under coaches like Kyle Shanahan, creates intense internal pressure when things go wrong. The team's reliance on complex offensive schemes means that confidence issues compound quickly - when players start second-guessing assignments after losses, the intricate timing that makes their system effective begins to unravel. Home crowds at Levi's Stadium can become a double-edged sword during rough patches. Unlike some franchises that thrive on underdog energy, the 49ers carry championship expectations that make their fanbase particularly vocal when the team underperforms. This creates additional pressure on players who are already dealing with the mental weight of consecutive defeats. The team's injury-prone core players also tend to press harder in these situations, often leading to further physical breakdowns or mental mistakes. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when the 49ers are in desperation mode versus genuine bounce-back spots. Teams coming off multiple losses often get inflated spreads due to public perception, but San Francisco's track record suggests they struggle more than most to flip the script immediately. This trend carries the most weight early in seasons when championship expectations are highest and during playoff races when every home game feels like a must-win.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The San Francisco 49ers have gone 19-23-0 against the spread when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.2% ATS win rate over 42 games.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the 49ers at home after 2+ losses has not been profitable, showing a -13.6% ROI over the past decade. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing San Francisco in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The 49ers' 45.2% ATS win rate in this situation is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. Most teams struggle ATS after multiple losses, but the 49ers have been particularly poor in this spot at home.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.