The data suggests caution when backing the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the San Francisco 49ers are just 19-23-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record19-23-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size42 games
ROI-13.6%
Units Won-5.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-3-00.0%+19.3%
20152-0-00.0%+90.9%
20160-5-00.0%-100.0%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20212-3-00.0%-23.6%
20223-1-00.0%+43.2%
20230-4-00.0%-100.0%
20244-2-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The 49ers' underwhelming home performance against the spread stems from a combination of inflated market expectations and their volatile roster transitions over the past decade. San Francisco's passionate fanbase and historic franchise reputation often create betting lines that overvalue the home field advantage at Levi's Stadium, which has never matched the intimidating atmosphere of their former Candlestick Park home. The team's frequent coaching changes and quarterback carousel have made them particularly inconsistent in meeting elevated expectations when playing in front of their own crowd. Levi's Stadium itself presents unique challenges that impact performance relative to betting lines. The venue's corporate atmosphere and higher ticket prices have diluted the traditional 12th man advantage, while the South Bay location creates different weather patterns than the team historically faced. Additionally, the 49ers have often been rebuilding or transitioning during this period, making them prone to letdown performances when the market assumes home field will provide extra motivation. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing San Francisco at home when they're favored by more than a field goal, as the market consistently overestimates their ability to cover larger spreads in front of their own fans. This trend matters most when the 49ers are coming off impressive road victories or facing divisional opponents with strong recent form.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as home games?

The San Francisco 49ers have an ATS record of 19-23-0 in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.2% ATS win rate over 42 total home games during this period.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as home games profitable?

No, betting on the San Francisco 49ers in home games has not been profitable, showing a -13.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the 49ers at home against the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

The 49ers' 45.2% home ATS win rate is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. Most successful home teams typically maintain ATS win rates above 52-53% to be considered profitable betting options.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.