The data suggests caution when backing the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the San Francisco 49ers are just 17-33-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -35.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +35.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record17-33-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size50 games
ROI-35.1%
Units Won-17.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-3-00.0%-4.5%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20160-5-00.0%-100.0%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20180-3-00.0%-100.0%
20193-2-00.0%+14.6%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20212-4-00.0%-36.4%
20223-3-00.0%-4.5%
20233-4-00.0%-18.2%
20240-4-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The 49ers' struggles as favorites stem from a combination of organizational volatility and the weight of inflated expectations. San Francisco has endured significant coaching turnover and roster upheaval throughout this period, creating inconsistency in game preparation and execution when the pressure is highest. The franchise's boom-bust cycles - from playoff contenders to rebuilding years - mean they've often been favored during transitional periods when their true talent level didn't match public perception. Kyle Shanahan's offensive system, while innovative, requires precise execution and can be particularly vulnerable when opponents have extra preparation time to game-plan against a favored 49ers squad. The team's reliance on injury-prone skill position players has also created situations where they enter games as favorites but without key contributors, leading to underwhelming performances against motivated underdogs. The psychological burden of being expected to win has consistently plagued this franchise, particularly in primetime spots and division games where opponents circle the calendar. San Francisco's talented roster often generates betting action that inflates their lines beyond their actual edge. This trend carries the most weight when the 49ers are road favorites or facing divisional opponents who know their schemes intimately.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as as favorite?

The San Francisco 49ers have an ATS record of 17-33-0 when favored from 2014-2024. This represents a 34% ATS win rate over 50 games as favorites.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the 49ers as favorites has not been profitable, showing a -35.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost significant money consistently backing San Francisco when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average, as NFL favorites typically cover around 48-50% of the time. The 49ers' 34% ATS rate as favorites ranks among the worst in the league over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.