The data suggests caution when backing the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the San Francisco 49ers are just 23-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record23-25-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size48 games
ROI-8.5%
Units Won-4.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20161-4-00.0%-61.8%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20181-3-00.0%-52.3%
20194-1-00.0%+52.7%
20203-1-00.0%+43.2%
20213-2-00.0%+14.6%
20225-2-00.0%+36.4%
20231-3-00.0%-52.3%
20242-3-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The 49ers' struggles after victories stem from their organizational culture of perfectionism and high internal expectations. Under Kyle Shanahan's system, the team conducts exhaustive film study after wins, often identifying numerous areas for improvement that can create mental burden rather than confidence. This analytical approach, while beneficial for long-term development, frequently leads to overthinking and tight execution in the immediate follow-up game. San Francisco's injury-prone roster compounds this issue significantly. Key players like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and members of their elite defensive front often play through minor ailments that become more problematic when the team lacks the emotional urgency that typically accompanies losses. The 49ers' complex offensive scheme requires precise timing and chemistry that suffers when players are managing both physical limitations and the psychological comfort that comes with recent success. The franchise's championship-or-bust mentality creates additional pressure after wins, as media and fan expectations immediately shift toward sustaining momentum rather than appreciating individual victories. This external pressure often manifests in conservative play-calling and hesitant execution. Bettors should particularly target fading the 49ers after impressive road victories against quality opponents, when the letdown effect combines with travel fatigue and heightened expectations for their next performance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco 49ers's ATS record as after a win?

The San Francisco 49ers have a 23-25-0 ATS record after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.9% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the San Francisco 49ers as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the 49ers after a win has not been profitable, showing a -8.5% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently following this strategy.

How does this compare to the league average?

The 49ers' 47.9% ATS win rate after wins is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point. This underperformance suggests the betting market may overvalue the team following victories.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.