Zack Moss has become one of the most reliable rushing yard unders in the NFL, hitting just 1 of 10 overs (10.0%) while averaging 28.3 yards against a 49.0 line. The Bengals running back is currently riding a five-game under streak with a devastating -20.7 yard differential.
Expert Analysis
Zack Moss's rushing yard struggles reflect Cincinnati's offensive identity crisis and his limited role in their passing-heavy attack. The 20.7-yard deficit between his actual production (28.3) and typical lines (49.0) isn't just bad luck—it's structural. The Bengals rank among the league's most pass-heavy offenses, with Joe Burrow's arm talent making them abandon ground games early when trailing. Moss has also dealt with snap count volatility, often ceding work to Chase Brown in obvious rushing situations. The consistency of this trend—nine unders in ten games with a current five-game streak—suggests sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his diminished role. Cincinnati's negative game scripts compound the issue, as they're frequently playing from behind and forced into one-dimensional passing attacks. While regression toward his career averages might seem inevitable, the Bengals' offensive philosophy and Moss's reduced workload create a sustainable edge. The 71.8% ROI on unders represents exceptional value, particularly when Cincinnati faces strong defenses or projects to trail early. This isn't a temporary slump—it's a reflection of Moss operating in an offense that simply doesn't prioritize establishing the run.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate and -20.7 yard differential create compelling value, especially given Cincinnati's pass-first identity. Target Moss unders when the Bengals face strong defenses or are projected underdogs, as negative game scripts amplify his struggles. The main risk is snap count volatility if Chase Brown gets injured or falls out of favor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 11.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 31.5 | 7.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 41.5 | 13.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 39.5 | 24.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 52.5 | 58.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 49.5 | 34.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 46.5 | 44.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 72.5 | 13.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 76.5 | 28.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Zack Moss props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zack Moss's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Zack Moss has gone 1-9-0 on rushing yard overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging only 28.3 rushing yards against typical lines around 49.0 yards, creating a massive -20.7 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zack Moss Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Zack Moss rushing yards. The 90% under rate and -20.7 yard deficit reflect Cincinnati's pass-heavy offense and his reduced role. Target unders when the Bengals are underdogs or face strong defenses.
What's Zack Moss's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Zack Moss is averaging 28.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 49.0 yards. This creates a devastating -20.7 yard differential, making unders extremely profitable with 71.8% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Zack Moss rushing yard unders when Cincinnati faces strong run defenses or projects to trail early. Negative game scripts force the Bengals into pass-heavy attacks, limiting Moss's opportunities and amplifying his struggles.