Zach Wilson's passing touchdown production has been significantly below expectations, hitting the under in 60% of his last 10 games with a brutal -0.2 touchdown differential versus the betting line. The under has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been a disaster at -23.6%, making Wilson a clear fade candidate for touchdown props.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's touchdown struggles reflect deeper issues with Denver's offensive system and his development as a quarterback. Averaging just 0.5 passing touchdowns per game against a 0.7 line reveals a consistent pattern of bookmakers overvaluing his scoring potential. This isn't simply variance - it's systematic underperformance that stems from Wilson's conservative decision-making, limited red zone opportunities, and Denver's ground-heavy approach near the goal line. The 4-6-0 over/under record tells only part of the story; the -23.6% ROI on overs indicates these misses weren't close calls but decisive failures to reach modest expectations. Wilson's current streak of one under continues a pattern where he's managed just two consecutive overs at his peak. The persistence of this trend suggests structural issues rather than temporary struggles. Denver's offensive coordinator has shown reluctance to feature Wilson heavily in scoring situations, often relying on running backs and short-yardage specialists. While regression toward league averages is always possible, Wilson's fundamental limitations as a touchdown producer appear deeply embedded in both his skill set and Denver's strategic approach, making the under a consistently profitable angle.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's systematic underperformance against touchdown lines stems from Denver's conservative offensive approach and his limited red zone effectiveness. The 14.6% ROI on unders reflects genuine value, not just recent luck. Target this prop when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, particularly in divisional games where Denver typically emphasizes ball control. Main risk is potential offensive coordinator changes or garbage-time scenarios inflating his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Wilson's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Wilson's passing touchdown props went 4-6-0 over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. He averaged just 0.5 passing touchdowns per game while betting lines averaged 0.7, creating a significant -0.2 differential that consistently favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Wilson Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Wilson's passing touchdown props. The data strongly supports this approach with a 14.6% ROI on unders versus a catastrophic -23.6% loss on overs. His systematic underperformance against lines makes the under a consistently profitable angle.
What's Zach Wilson's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Wilson averaged 0.5 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.2 touchdowns short of the average 0.7 betting line. This substantial gap indicates bookmakers consistently overestimate his touchdown production, creating value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson's touchdown unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, especially in divisional matchups where Denver emphasizes conservative game plans. Avoid betting during potential blowout losses where garbage-time scoring could inflate his numbers unexpectedly.