Zach Wilson's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity with a dismal 40% over rate across 10 games. His 0.5 touchdown average falls 0.2 below the typical 0.7 line, generating a profitable 14.6% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage 23.6%.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's touchdown production reveals a quarterback struggling with red zone efficiency and offensive system limitations. His 0.5 touchdown average against 0.7 lines reflects a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. The -23.6% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent market overvaluation of Wilson's scoring ability, likely influenced by his draft pedigree rather than actual performance. The 40% over rate across 10 games provides sufficient sample size to identify a sustainable edge. Wilson's touchdown struggles stem from multiple factors: limited arm talent in tight windows, conservative play-calling in scoring situations, and inconsistent offensive line protection that forces quick decisions. The current under streak of one game follows his longest under streak of three, suggesting volatility but with a clear directional bias. Most concerning for over bettors is Wilson's inability to capitalize on favorable game scripts, indicating systemic issues rather than situational bad luck. The 14.6% under ROI demonstrates market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit consistently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 0.5 touchdown average consistently trails market lines, creating sustainable value on unders despite the modest sample size. The -0.2 differential combined with positive under ROI suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his limitations. Primary risk involves potential offensive coordinator changes or increased red zone targets that could boost his scoring rate unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Wilson's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Wilson's passing touchdown props show a 4-6-0 over/under record (40% overs) across 10 games from September to December 2023. This translates to 6 unders, 4 overs, and no pushes, demonstrating consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Wilson Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Wilson's passing touchdowns. His 0.5 average falls 0.2 below typical lines, generating 14.6% ROI on unders while overs lose 23.6%. The 40% over rate provides a clear statistical edge for under bettors.
What's Zach Wilson's average Passing TDs all games?
Wilson averages 0.5 passing touchdowns per game across his 10-game sample. This sits 0.2 touchdowns below the typical 0.7 line, creating a meaningful gap that consistently favors under bettors seeking value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson touchdown unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly in road games or against strong defenses. Avoid betting during potential garbage time scenarios or when he faces depleted secondaries that might inflate his scoring opportunities.