Zach Charbonnet's rushing yards props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% of overs across 12 games with a brutal -20.4% ROI on the over side. His 30.42 yards per game barely exceeds the typical 30-yard line, creating consistent value on unders with an 11.4% profit margin.
Expert Analysis
Zach Charbonnet's home rushing performance reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't adjusted to his limited role in Seattle's offense. The 58.3% under rate isn't just variance—it reflects the structural reality of sharing carries in a pass-heavy system where Kenneth Walker III commands the primary workload. Home games haven't provided the expected boost, likely due to Seattle's tendency to throw more when playing with leads at Lumen Field. The +0.4 yard differential between his average and typical lines seems insignificant, but it's actually meaningful given the narrow margins in rushing props. Charbonnet's role remains too inconsistent for reliable over hits, particularly at home where game scripts often favor the passing game. The two-game under streak aligns with his seasonal pattern rather than representing negative regression. Most concerning for over bettors is that even when Charbonnet does hit the over, the margins are typically slim, while his unders often come with significant cushion. The lack of explosive home performances suggests this isn't a venue-specific issue but rather a reflection of his complementary role in the offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.4% ROI on unders combined with the 58.3% hit rate creates a profitable long-term edge, though not quite strong enough for maximum conviction. Target unders when lines sit at 30+ yards, particularly in games where Seattle projects to have positive game script. Primary risk is increased usage if Walker suffers any injury concerns during the week.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 18.5 | -1.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 62.5 | 54.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 19.5 | 8.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 4.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 19.5 | 11.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 91.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 55.5 | 47.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 44.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 19.5 | 53.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Charbonnet's rushing yards props at home show a 5-7-0 over/under record (41.7% overs) across 12 games. The under side has generated an 11.4% ROI while overs have lost -20.4%, making this a clear trend favoring the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Charbonnet's rushing yards at home. The 58.3% under rate and positive 11.4% ROI create a profitable edge, especially when lines are set at 30+ yards in games where Seattle projects to throw frequently.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Rushing Yards home games?
Charbonnet averages 30.42 rushing yards in home games, just 0.4 yards above the typical 30-yard line. This minimal edge actually favors unders since rushing props require significant margins to consistently hit overs in his complementary role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet rushing yard unders at home when lines are 30+ yards and Seattle is favored by 3+ points. These conditions historically produce the highest under hit rates due to increased passing volume in positive game scripts.