Fade UNDER
4-6 O/U Record
40.0% Over Rate
-2.4u Units Won
-23.6% ROI
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Zach Charbonnet's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 1.6 receptions against a 2.3 line. The Seahawks running back is currently riding a four-game under streak, delivering a robust +14.6% ROI for fade plays.

Expert Analysis

The numbers tell a clear story about Zach Charbonnet's limited role in Seattle's passing attack. His 1.6 reception average sits 0.7 catches below the typical line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his usage patterns. This isn't a fluke over two or three games—we're looking at 10 contests where Charbonnet has consistently underperformed reception expectations. The -0.7 differential is substantial in a market where margins matter, and the current four-game under streak indicates this trend has momentum rather than showing signs of regression. Seattle's offensive philosophy appears to favor Charbonnet as a traditional between-the-tackles runner rather than a pass-catching weapon. The 60% under rate combined with the +14.6% ROI demonstrates this isn't just a statistical quirk—it's a systematic undervaluation by the market. While running backs can see reception upticks in negative game scripts, Charbonnet's role seems more defined than volatile, making this trend particularly reliable for sharp bettors who recognize when books are slow to adjust their numbers.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI provide a solid foundation, while the four-game streak suggests continued momentum. Target Charbonnet reception unders when lines remain at 2.0 or higher, particularly in games where Seattle projects to control pace. The main risk is a blowout loss forcing increased passing volume, but his defined role limits that upside.

4 OVERS (40.0%)
6 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 10 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2025-01-05 OPP 2.5 0.0 -2.5 UNDER
2024-12-26 OPP 3.5 3.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-12-22 OPP 2.5 2.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-12-15 OPP 4.5 1.0 -3.5 UNDER
2024-12-01 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-11-24 OPP 1.5 0.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-11-17 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-11-03 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-10-27 OPP 1.5 3.0 +1.5 OVER
2024-10-10 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 33.3% Over
Away 50.0% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over
Last 10 40.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Zach Charbonnet's Receptions prop record last 10 games?

Charbonnet has gone 4-6-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaging 1.6 receptions against a typical line of 2.3, creating consistent value for under bettors with a -0.7 differential.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receptions last 10 games?

Bet the under on Charbonnet's receptions. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency. His four-game under streak and limited receiving role in Seattle's offense make this a medium-confidence fade play.

What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receptions last 10 games?

Charbonnet averages 1.6 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.3 line. This -0.7 differential consistently favors under bettors, as books appear slow to adjust to his limited pass-catching usage.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Charbonnet reception unders when lines are 2.0 or higher, especially in games where Seattle projects positive game script. Avoid in potential blowout losses where increased passing volume could boost his receiving opportunities unexpectedly.

Methodology: This analysis covers 10 games from 2024-10-10 to 2025-01-05. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.