Zach Charbonnet's receptions prop shows a perfectly balanced 8-8 record against the standard 2.5 line, but his 2.12 average reveals consistent underperformance by 0.4 receptions per game. With four straight unders and negative ROI on both sides, the data suggests leaning under on his receiving volume.
Expert Analysis
Charbonnet's reception data tells the story of a running back whose receiving role remains more limited than oddsmakers consistently price. His 2.12 average against a 2.5 line represents a meaningful 15% underperformance that has persisted across 16 games spanning multiple seasons. The current four-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it reflects Seattle's offensive philosophy that primarily utilizes Charbonnet as a ground-based complement rather than a pass-catching weapon. The perfectly even 8-8 record masks the underlying trend, as his longest over streak reached only three games compared to four consecutive unders. This suggests that when Charbonnet does exceed expectations in the passing game, it's typically short-lived regression rather than a sustainable shift in usage. The negative ROI on both sides indicates the market has struggled to properly price his receiving volume, but the consistent underperformance relative to the line creates a slight edge. Seattle's offensive coordinator tends to lean on more established pass-catching options, relegating Charbonnet to situational receiving work that rarely reaches the 3+ reception threshold needed to consistently clear 2.5.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Charbonnet's 2.12 average represents consistent underperformance against the 2.5 line, supported by his current four-game under streak and limited pass-catching role in Seattle's offense. The ideal betting spot comes when the line stays at 2.5 or moves higher, as his receiving usage hasn't shown sustainable growth beyond spot situations. Main risk involves game script forcing Seattle into more pass-heavy approaches where running backs see increased targets.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receptions prop record all games?
Zach Charbonnet has gone 8-8 on his receptions over/under in 16 games, hitting exactly 50% overs. However, his 2.12 average significantly trails the typical 2.5 line, indicating consistent underperformance despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receptions all games?
Lean under on Charbonnet's receptions props. His 2.12 average consistently falls short of the 2.5 line, he's currently on a four-game under streak, and Seattle's offense limits his pass-catching opportunities to situational work rather than featured receiving duties.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receptions all games?
Charbonnet averages 2.12 receptions per game across his 16-game sample. This trails the standard 2.5 line by 0.4 receptions, representing a meaningful 15% underperformance that creates value on the under when properly priced.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet reception unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, especially during his current cold streak. Avoid betting when Seattle faces pass-heavy game scripts or when facing defenses that force more checkdown opportunities to running backs.