Zach Charbonnet's receiving yards prop at home shows a solid 60% over rate (6-4-0) with a +0.9 yard edge over the typical 15.1 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests consistent value, though the sample size requires caution. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Charbonnet's home receiving production reflects Seattle's offensive identity and his expanding role in the passing game. The 16.0 yard average versus a 15.1 line creates consistent value, particularly when considering how home field advantage typically benefits offensive rhythm and timing routes. The Seahawks' home environment at Lumen Field has historically supported better offensive execution, which directly impacts running back involvement in short passing situations. Charbonnet's receiving yards prop benefits from Seattle's tendency to utilize running backs as safety valves, especially when facing pressure at home where crowd noise can disrupt opposing pass rushes. The 60% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive differential suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his increased target share in home games. However, the limited sample size raises concerns about sustainability, and game script dependency remains a significant factor. When Seattle trails at home, Charbonnet sees more targets, but blowout wins could limit his passing game involvement. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp value, though bettors should monitor his target trends and snap count percentage as the season progresses to ensure this edge persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of a positive yard differential (+0.9) and solid ROI (+14.6%) creates legitimate value on Charbonnet's receiving yards overs at home. Target games where Seattle faces competent passing offenses that could force more balanced offensive attack. Main risk is small sample size and potential game script variations that could limit his receiving opportunities in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 25.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 20.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 22.5 | 16.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 29.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 19.5 | 11.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Charbonnet has hit the over on his receiving yards prop in 6 of 10 home games (60% rate), averaging 16.0 yards versus a typical 15.1 line for a +0.9 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Charbonnet's receiving yards at home. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate consistent value, particularly in competitive games where Seattle maintains balanced offensive attack.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receiving Yards home games?
Charbonnet averages 16.0 receiving yards in home games, nearly a full yard above the typical 15.1 line. This +0.9 differential has produced profitable over betting opportunities consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet receiving yards overs in home games against teams with strong passing attacks that force Seattle to stay aggressive offensively, avoiding potential blowout scenarios where rushing dominates.