Zach Charbonnet's receiving yards props show a modest 55.0% over rate with an 11-9-0 record across 20 games, averaging 15.75 yards against a 14.5 line. The +1.2 differential creates value, though the 5.0% ROI suggests limited edge. Lean over with caution given current two-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Charbonnet's receiving production reflects Seattle's evolving offensive identity and his growing role in the passing game. The 15.75 average against a 14.5 line indicates consistent modest value, though the relatively tight margin suggests books have adjusted well to his usage patterns. The 55.0% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive differential and 5.0% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable edge over the sample. Seattle's offensive coordinator tends to utilize running backs in short-yardage passing situations, particularly on third downs and in the red zone, which creates a reliable floor for Charbonnet's receiving output. However, the current two-game under streak and the -14.1% ROI on unders suggests recent regression toward his baseline. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but Charbonnet's receiving role appears relatively stable regardless of game script. His receiving yards props benefit from Seattle's willingness to check down to backs when facing pressure, though this can be game-script dependent. The modest sample size of 20 games provides reasonable confidence, but bettors should monitor for any shifts in offensive philosophy or snap-share changes that could impact his receiving opportunities moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +1.2 differential and 5.0% ROI on overs provides legitimate value despite the modest 55.0% hit rate. Charbonnet's role in Seattle's passing game appears stable, creating a reliable floor around 15-16 yards. The current under streak may present buying opportunity as regression favors the over. Risk lies in potential game script variations and the narrow margin for error at this low yardage threshold.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 25.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 20.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 22.5 | 16.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 31.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 29.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 10.5 | -4.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Charbonnet's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Charbonnet's receiving yards props show an 11-9-0 record across 20 games, hitting the over 55.0% of the time. He averages 15.75 receiving yards against a typical 14.5 line, creating a +1.2 positive differential that suggests consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Charbonnet Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Charbonnet's receiving yards props. The +1.2 differential and 5.0% ROI on overs provides legitimate edge, though the modest 55.0% hit rate requires selective betting. The current under streak may present buying opportunity.
What's Zach Charbonnet's average Receiving Yards all games?
Charbonnet averages 15.75 receiving yards per game across his 20-game sample. This sits 1.2 yards above the typical 14.5 line, indicating consistent modest value for over bettors despite the relatively low yardage threshold.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Charbonnet receiving yards overs when the line sits at 14.5 or lower, particularly after under streaks. His role in Seattle's short passing game provides a reliable floor, making overs profitable long-term despite modest hit rates.