Xavier Worthy's home receiving yards props present a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record with a -2.4 yard differential against the line. The neutral ROI and modest underperformance suggest books are accurately pricing his home production. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably efficient market for Worthy's home receiving yards props, with books demonstrating sharp line-setting accuracy. His 39.0-yard average consistently falling 2.4 yards below the 41.4 line indicates oddsmakers may be slightly overvaluing his home production based on his overall season metrics or road performance. The perfect 50% over rate across 10 games suggests no exploitable bias exists in either direction. Worthy's role as Kansas City's deep threat creates inherent volatility - he's capable of explosive games that smash overs but equally prone to quiet outings when game script doesn't favor vertical passing. The lack of meaningful splits data limits our ability to identify specific conditions favoring overs or unders. His recent integration into the Chiefs' offense appears stable, with no clear home/road performance differential emerging. The 1-game over streak following a 4-game under run demonstrates the randomness inherent in his weekly production. Without additional context about opponent-specific matchups, weather conditions, or Worthy's target share in home games, this trend offers no sustainable edge for bettors seeking consistent profit.
Betting Verdict
PASS with MEDIUM confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record combined with accurate line-setting creates a coin-flip scenario with no edge. While Worthy averages 2.4 yards below his typical line at home, the neutral ROI indicates this slight underperformance is already baked into pricing. Save your bankroll for props with clearer directional bias.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 51.5 | 85.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 53.5 | 45.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 39.5 | 65.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 36.5 | 41.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 36.5 | 54.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 31.5 | 11.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 34.5 | 0.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 41.5 | 25.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 44.5 | 17.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 44.5 | 47.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Xavier Worthy's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Xavier Worthy has gone over his receiving yards prop in exactly 5 of 10 home games this season, creating a perfectly balanced 50% over rate. His 5-5 record demonstrates remarkable consistency in market efficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Xavier Worthy Receiving Yards home games?
Pass on Xavier Worthy's home receiving yards props. The 5-5 record with neutral ROI indicates books are pricing these accurately with no sustainable edge available for either over or under bets.
What's Xavier Worthy's average Receiving Yards home games?
Xavier Worthy averages 39.0 receiving yards in home games, falling 2.4 yards short of his typical 41.4 line. This modest underperformance suggests slight overvaluation by oddsmakers but insufficient for profitable betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Xavier Worthy's receiving yards props in home games entirely. The balanced 50% over rate and neutral ROI across 10 games indicate no favorable conditions exist for consistent profitability.