Will Levis has been a nightmare for over bettors, hitting just 33.3% of rushing yards overs across 15 games while averaging 11.93 yards against a 13.63 line. The -1.7 yard differential and devastating -36.4% over ROI paint a clear picture. The under presents compelling value.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's rushing yards consistently disappoint because he operates within a conservative offensive system that prioritizes pocket passing over designed quarterback runs. His 11.93 yard average falls nearly two full yards short of the typical 13.63 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited rushing role in Tennessee's offense. The Titans utilize Levis primarily as a traditional pocket passer, with scrambles accounting for most of his rushing production rather than designed keepers or read-option plays. This approach creates a natural ceiling on his rushing attempts and yardage accumulation. The current four-game under streak isn't an aberration but rather reflects the systemic nature of this trend. Unlike dual-threat quarterbacks who can explode for 30-40 rushing yards in any given game, Levis operates within tighter parameters that make consistent under results highly probable. The 27.3% under ROI demonstrates the market's continued overvaluation of his rushing upside. Tennessee's offensive philosophy shows no signs of incorporating more quarterback-designed runs, particularly as they evaluate Levis's pocket presence and arm talent for potential long-term consideration. This isn't a temporary coaching decision but rather a fundamental approach that limits his rushing ceiling week after week.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.3% over rate and -1.7 yard differential create a sustainable edge, while the conservative offensive system limits Levis's rushing ceiling. Target unders when the line sits at 13+ yards, as Tennessee's pocket-passing approach consistently produces modest rushing totals. Main risk involves potential garbage-time scrambles in blowout losses, but the systemic trend favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 3.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 19.5 | -3.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 10.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 41.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 38.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 8.5 | 36.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Will Levis has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 5 of 15 games (33.3%) while going under 10 times. His devastating -36.4% ROI on overs makes him one of the worst over bets for quarterback rushing yards this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Will Levis rushing yards. His 33.3% over rate and -1.7 yard differential against the line create consistent value, especially when lines are set at 13+ yards in Tennessee's conservative offensive system.
What's Will Levis's average Rushing Yards all games?
Will Levis averages 11.93 rushing yards per game, falling 1.7 yards short of his typical 13.63 line. This consistent shortfall reflects Tennessee's pocket-passing approach and creates a reliable edge for under bettors seeking value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis rushing yards unders when lines are set at 13+ yards and Tennessee faces competent defenses. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage-time scrambles could inflate his totals beyond typical conservative usage patterns.