Will Levis has been a consistent under performer on passing yards props, going 4-6-0 (40% overs) over his last 10 games while averaging 178.9 yards against a 199.1 line. The -20.2 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's passing yards struggles reflect a perfect storm of limited offensive weapons, conservative game planning, and developmental growing pains. The Titans have leaned heavily on their ground game to protect their young quarterback, resulting in Levis averaging just 28.4 pass attempts per game during this stretch. His 6.3 yards per attempt suggests accuracy issues and a reluctance to push the ball downfield, likely stemming from Tennessee's weak receiving corps and porous pass protection. The -20.2 yard differential isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance that oddsmakers have been slow to adjust for. Levis has shown particular struggles in road environments and against quality defenses, where the Titans' offensive limitations become magnified. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of inconsistency, and with Tennessee often playing from behind, you'd expect more passing volume. Instead, Levis has frequently been pulled or limited in garbage time due to turnovers and ineffective play. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to his limitations, creating ongoing value on the under side of his props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Levis's systematic underperformance stems from Tennessee's run-heavy approach and his own developmental limitations, not variance that's likely to correct. The -20.2 yard differential over 10 games represents a meaningful edge that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. Main risk is a potential shootout scenario forcing increased volume, but Tennessee's conservative offensive philosophy makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 214.5 | 89.0 | -125.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 216.5 | 168.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 208.5 | 212.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 188.5 | 278.0 | +89.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 186.5 | 295.0 | +108.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 184.5 | 175.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 201.5 | 95.0 | -106.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 195.5 | 25.0 | -170.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 199.5 | 260.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 195.5 | 192.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Will Levis has gone 4-6-0 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his overs. He's averaging 178.9 yards against lines averaging 199.1, creating a significant -20.2 yard differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Will Levis passing yards props. His consistent underperformance (-20.2 yards vs line) and Tennessee's run-heavy approach create systematic value on unders, evidenced by the +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs.
What's Will Levis's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Will Levis is averaging 178.9 passing yards over his last 10 games, falling short of his average line of 199.1 yards by 20.2 yards per game. This represents a meaningful gap that suggests continued under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis under props when Tennessee faces strong run defenses that should force more passing, as these create the highest lines while his limitations remain constant. Avoid unders in potential blowout losses where garbage time could inflate numbers.