Will Levis has hit the over on his passing yards prop just 40% of the time in home games, going 4-6-0 with an average of 194.5 yards against a 197.9 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost bettors 23.6%. This creates a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Will Levis's home passing struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a systematic edge for under bettors. The young quarterback averages 194.5 passing yards at home against lines set at 197.9, indicating oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations in familiar surroundings. This 3.4-yard negative differential might seem minor, but it's significant enough to flip results when combined with the Titans' conservative offensive approach at home. Tennessee's tendency to lean on their ground game in front of their own crowd reduces Levis's passing volume, while his inexperience shows more prominently when managing games rather than playing from behind on the road. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern rooted in game script and offensive philosophy. Levis's current two-game under streak aligns with this broader trend, suggesting the market still overvalues his home passing output. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, as it indicates consistent underperformance across various opponent types and game situations at home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Levis consistently underperforms his home passing yards lines, creating a 14.6% ROI edge that outweighs the modest 23.6% loss rate on overs. The ideal conditions involve games where Tennessee can establish an early lead or stay competitive, allowing their ground-heavy approach to dominate. The main risk is garbage time in blowout losses forcing Levis into heavy passing situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 214.5 | 89.0 | -125.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 216.5 | 168.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 186.5 | 295.0 | +108.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 201.5 | 95.0 | -106.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 199.5 | 260.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 195.5 | 192.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 203.5 | 199.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 210.5 | 224.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 195.5 | 185.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 155.5 | 238.0 | +82.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing Yards prop record home games?
Will Levis has gone 4-6-0 on passing yards overs in home games, hitting just 40% of his overs. He averages 194.5 passing yards per home game against typical lines around 197.9 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing Yards home games?
Bet the under on Levis's home passing yards props. The under has generated a 14.6% ROI while overs lose 23.6%, creating a clear mathematical edge for under bettors.
What's Will Levis's average Passing Yards home games?
Levis averages 194.5 passing yards in home games, which is 3.4 yards below the typical line of 197.9. This consistent underperformance creates value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Levis passing yards unders when Tennessee plays at home in competitive games where they can control pace. Avoid when the Titans are heavy underdogs facing potential blowout scenarios.