Will Levis has delivered modest passing touchdown value over his last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time with a 6-4 record. His 1.2 touchdown average sits just 0.2 above typical lines, generating a solid +14.6% ROI on overs. The data suggests a lean over approach despite recent regression.
Expert Analysis
Levis's passing touchdown production reveals a quarterback finding his rhythm in limited opportunities. The 1.2 touchdown average against 1.0 lines indicates consistent but not explosive scoring through the air. The +14.6% over ROI demonstrates real betting value, though the modest 0.2 differential suggests this edge operates on thin margins. The current two-game under streak following a four-game over run highlights the volatility inherent in touchdown props for developing quarterbacks. Levis benefits from Tennessee's willingness to let him throw in scoring situations, but his touchdown upside remains capped by the team's overall offensive limitations and his own inconsistent red zone accuracy. The 60% over rate suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his touchdown potential, possibly anchoring too heavily on his limited NFL sample size. However, the recent regression and narrow margins demand careful game-by-game evaluation rather than blind over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine value despite the modest differential. Levis shows enough red zone trust from coaches to justify the slight premium on overs. Target games where Tennessee projects as competitive or trailing, forcing more passing volume. Main risk is the recent under streak continuing if the Titans lean heavily on their ground game in favorable game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Levis's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Will Levis has gone over his passing touchdowns prop 6 times in his last 10 games (60% rate). His 6-4 over/under record with a +14.6% ROI on overs shows consistent value, though he's currently on a two-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Levis Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean over on Will Levis passing touchdowns props. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate real value despite modest margins. Books appear to slightly undervalue his red zone involvement, creating consistent opportunities for profitable over bets.
What's Will Levis's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Will Levis averages 1.2 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical 1.0 lines. This +0.2 differential seems small but generates meaningful betting value, as evidenced by the positive ROI on overs throughout this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Levis passing touchdown overs when Tennessee faces competitive game scripts or trails early, forcing more aggressive passing. Avoid when the Titans are heavy favorites or in weather conditions favoring ground-heavy approaches that limit red zone passing attempts.