Will Dissly has quietly become one of the NFL's most reliable over bets, hitting 6-4 on receiving yards props with a +5.2 yard edge over the average line. The Chargers tight end is averaging 36.5 receiving yards against a typical 31.3 line, generating a solid 14.6% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over with sustainable underlying factors.
Expert Analysis
Dissly's receiving yards trend reflects his evolving role in the Chargers' offensive system rather than random variance. The 36.5 yard average against 31.3 lines suggests bookmakers are consistently undervaluing his target share and efficiency in Los Angeles' passing attack. The 60% over rate with positive ROI indicates genuine predictive value, not just lucky variance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - while he's hit one recent under, his longest over streak reached three games, showing he can sustain production across multiple weeks. The +5.2 yard differential is substantial for a tight end position where lines are typically set conservatively. Dissly's integration into the Chargers' system appears to be creating more opportunities than his historical usage patterns would suggest, making him a classic case of market inefficiency. The sample size of 10 games provides reasonable confidence without being overly dependent on small-sample noise. However, the recent under does suggest some potential cooling, and tight end production can be volatile week-to-week depending on game script and red zone opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dissly's 60% over rate and +5.2 yard edge over lines represents genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. The Chargers' offensive system is consistently creating more receiving opportunities for their tight end than bookmakers are pricing in. Best spots are games where Los Angeles projects to throw frequently or trail, as Dissly becomes a reliable check-down option. Main risk is his recent under suggests potential regression, and tight end targets can be unpredictable week-to-week.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 29.5 | 16.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 42.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 41.5 | 0.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 42.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 80.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 24.5 | 30.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 9.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 27.5 | 41.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 25.5 | 81.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Dissly's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Will Dissly has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) while going under 4 times. His longest over streak was 3 games, with a longest under streak of 2 games, currently on a 1-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Dissly Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Will Dissly receiving yards props. He's averaging 36.5 yards against typical 31.3 lines, creating a +5.2 yard edge with 14.6% ROI on overs. The Chargers system consistently creates more opportunities than bookmakers price in.
What's Will Dissly's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Will Dissly is averaging 36.5 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which is 5.2 yards above the typical prop line of 31.3. This significant differential suggests consistent market undervaluation of his role in the Chargers offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Best spots for Dissly receiving yards overs are games where the Chargers project to throw frequently or play from behind. His role as a reliable check-down target increases in pass-heavy game scripts and when Los Angeles needs consistent short completions.