Will Dissly has been a consistent over performer in conference games, hitting the over in 63.6% of appearances with a 7-4-0 record. His 31.0 yards per game average beats the typical 24.41 line by 6.6 yards, generating a robust 21.5% ROI on over bets.
Expert Analysis
Dissly's conference game success stems from the Chargers' strategic deployment of their veteran tight end in divisional battles where every possession matters. The 6.6-yard differential above market expectations suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his role in these higher-stakes matchups. Conference games typically feature more conservative game scripts and shorter passing concepts, which favor reliable possession receivers like Dissly over deep threats. His 31.0 yards per game average represents a meaningful 27% premium over the standard line, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge. The trend shows remarkable consistency across 11 games spanning multiple seasons, suggesting scheme-based rather than matchup-dependent success. However, the recent one-game under streak and lack of split data create some uncertainty about current form. The strong ROI numbers indicate the market hasn't fully adjusted to this pattern, though regression risk exists if his target share changes or the Chargers' offensive philosophy shifts toward more vertical concepts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dissly's 63.6% over rate and substantial 6.6-yard average differential create a legitimate edge in conference games. The 21.5% ROI demonstrates market inefficiency that hasn't been corrected. Best spots are when lines stay around 24-25 yards, maintaining the historical gap. Primary risk is target redistribution if the Chargers emphasize other receivers or shift to more explosive offensive concepts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 29.5 | 16.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 42.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 42.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 80.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 24.5 | 30.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 9.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 24.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 13.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 35.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Will Dissly props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Dissly's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Will Dissly has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of 11 conference games (63.6%) with 4 unders and no pushes. This 7-4-0 record has generated consistent profits for over bettors across multiple seasons.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Dissly Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Dissly's receiving yards in conference games. His 63.6% over rate and 6.6-yard average differential above typical lines create a legitimate edge that the market hasn't properly adjusted for yet.
What's Will Dissly's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Will Dissly averages 31.0 receiving yards per game in conference matchups, which is 6.6 yards above the typical 24.41 line. This 27% premium over market expectations drives his strong over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dissly overs when lines stay around 24-25 yards in conference games, maintaining the historical 6-7 yard gap. Avoid if his role changes dramatically or when facing elite pass defenses that limit short concepts.