Will Dissly's receiving yards have crushed the over at a 62.5% clip across 16 games, averaging 31.0 yards against a 23.75 line for a massive +7.2 differential. The 19.3% ROI on overs signals legitimate value in a market that consistently underprices his production.
Expert Analysis
The Chargers tight end has established himself as a consistent receiving threat that oddsmakers struggle to properly price. Dissly's 31.0-yard average represents a substantial 30% premium over his typical line, suggesting either persistent market inefficiency or fundamental changes in his role that books haven't adjusted for. This isn't marginal value—it's a systematic mispricing that has delivered nearly 20% returns over a meaningful 16-game sample. The consistency is particularly notable given tight end usage can be volatile week-to-week. Dissly appears to have carved out a reliable target share in the Chargers offense, likely benefiting from Justin Herbert's willingness to utilize his tight ends in the passing game. The 10-6 over record demonstrates this isn't driven by a few outlier performances but rather sustained production above market expectations. However, the recent single-game under streak and the fact that books haven't significantly adjusted lines despite this trend suggests either the market expects regression or there are situational factors not captured in the aggregate data. The lack of detailed splits makes it difficult to identify when Dissly is most likely to exceed expectations, which adds some uncertainty to the betting equation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +7.2 yard differential and 19.3% ROI represent clear value, but the single-game sample size and lack of situational data prevent a stronger recommendation. Dissly's consistent target share in the Chargers passing attack appears undervalued by the market. The main risk is natural regression toward the mean, especially if the Chargers game script changes or his role diminishes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 29.5 | 16.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 25.5 | 42.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 35.5 | 19.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 41.5 | 0.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 42.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 80.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 24.5 | 30.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 9.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 27.5 | 41.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 25.5 | 81.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 24.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 29.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 13.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Dissly's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Will Dissly has gone over his receiving yards prop in 10 of 16 games (62.5%) with an average of 31.0 yards against a typical 23.75 line, creating a +7.2 differential and 19.3% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Dissly Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Dissly's receiving yards props. The consistent +7.2 yard differential and 62.5% over rate suggest the market systematically undervalues his production, though recent form warrants some caution.
What's Will Dissly's average Receiving Yards all games?
Dissly averages 31.0 receiving yards per game compared to his typical 23.75 line, representing a significant 30% premium that has consistently delivered value for over bettors across 16 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dissly overs when his line remains around 23-24 yards, as this appears to be the sweet spot where books haven't adjusted for his actual production level in the Chargers offense.