Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across 10 games with a brutal -7.4 yard differential from his typical 56.0 line. The Giants rookie has delivered consistent value on the under side with +14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Tracy's rushing ceiling in his rookie campaign. Averaging 48.6 yards against a 56.0 line reveals a systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who appear slow to adjust to his limitations within the Giants' struggling offensive system. The -23.6% ROI on overs isn't just bad luck—it reflects fundamental issues with New York's run blocking and game script management that consistently cap Tracy's volume and efficiency. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency of the underperformance, with Tracy managing just four overs in ten attempts despite facing varying defensive matchups. The recent two-game over streak might seem concerning, but it follows a dominant five-game under run that established the baseline expectation. Tracy's role as a rookie in a dysfunctional offense creates natural limitations that sharp bettors can exploit, especially when books continue setting lines that assume better performance than his track record suggests. The Giants' tendency to fall behind early and abandon the run game further supports the under thesis, creating a structural advantage that transcends individual game matchups.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Tracy's -7.4 yard differential and 40% over rate create clear value on under bets, particularly when his line sits at 56+ yards. The Giants' offensive struggles and game script issues provide structural support for continued underperformance. Main risk is potential positive regression after ten games of consistent underperformance, but the underlying factors remain unchanged.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 56.5 | 59.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 48.5 | 59.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 48.5 | 26.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 31.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 64.5 | 45.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 64.5 | 32.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 42.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 75.5 | 103.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 62.5 | 66.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 33.5 | 23.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Tyrone Tracy Jr. props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tracy has gone 4-6-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaged 48.6 yards against typical lines around 56.0, creating a consistent -7.4 yard shortfall that has burned over bettors repeatedly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrone Tracy Jr. Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tracy's rushing yards props. His 40% over rate and -7.4 yard average differential create clear value, especially at lines of 56+ yards. The +14.6% ROI on unders reflects genuine edge from oddsmaker overvaluation.
What's Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Tracy averages 48.6 rushing yards over his last 10 games, falling 7.4 yards short of his typical 56.0 line. This consistent underperformance has created reliable value for under bettors while crushing those backing the over.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tracy rushing yards unders when his line sits at 56+ yards, especially in potential negative game script spots. His structural limitations in the Giants' offense create the most value when books set optimistic lines.