Tyreek Hill's reception props at home present a compelling over opportunity, hitting 62.5% of the time across 16 games with a +0.6 average differential versus the line. The 19.3% ROI on overs significantly outweighs the -28.4% under return, making home overs the clear lean.
Expert Analysis
Hill's home reception advantage stems from Miami's offensive philosophy and environmental factors that favor his skill set. The Dolphins utilize Hill more aggressively in familiar surroundings, where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa operates with greater comfort and timing precision. Hard Rock Stadium's controlled conditions eliminate weather variables that can disrupt Hill's route-running and hands, particularly crucial for a speed receiver whose separation often comes from precise cuts. The 6.62 home average versus 6.06 away differential suggests Miami's offensive coordinator specifically designs more reception opportunities for Hill when playing at home, likely through increased slot usage and underneath routes that complement his deep threats. The sample size of 16 games provides statistical significance, while the consistent +0.6 line differential indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this home bias. However, the recent one-game under streak and longest under streak of just two games suggests volatility remains manageable. The key risk lies in potential touchdown variance - if Hill scores early on long touchdowns, Miami may shift to a more balanced attack that limits his target share in garbage time scenarios.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 62.5% hit rate and 19.3% ROI create a sustainable edge, particularly when Hill's home reception props are set at his season average or below. Target spots where the line sits at 6.0 or lower, as Hill's 6.62 home average provides maximum value. The main risk involves blowout scenarios where Miami's lead reduces Hill's target volume in the fourth quarter.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyreek Hill's Receptions prop record home games?
Hill's reception props at home games show a 10-6 over/under record (62.5% overs) across 16 games from September 2023 to December 2024. The over rate significantly exceeds the typical 52.4% breakeven threshold needed for profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyreek Hill Receptions home games?
Bet over on Hill's reception props at home games. The 62.5% over rate and 19.3% ROI provide a clear statistical edge, especially when lines are set at 6.0 or below his 6.62 home average.
What's Tyreek Hill's average Receptions home games?
Hill averages 6.62 receptions in home games compared to the typical 6.06 line, creating a +0.6 differential. This consistent gap above market expectations drives the profitable over trend in familiar Miami conditions.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hill's reception overs when playing at Hard Rock Stadium with lines set at 6.0 or lower. Avoid during potential blowout games where Miami may limit his fourth-quarter targets after building substantial leads.