Tyreek Hill's reception props in away games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 38.9% over rates across 18 games with a brutal -25.8% ROI on overs. Hill averages 5.5 receptions away from home, consistently falling 0.3 catches short of typical lines around 5.8. The data strongly favors betting unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic pattern working against Hill's reception volume on the road. His 38.9% over rate in away games represents a significant deviation from random chance, suggesting structural factors beyond normal variance. The -0.3 differential between his 5.5 average and typical 5.8 lines indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this road struggle. Several factors explain this trend: Miami's offensive rhythm suffers in hostile environments, affecting the quick-game timing that feeds Hill's reception volume. Road games often feature different game scripts, with Miami potentially trailing and forced into deeper passing concepts that favor fewer, longer completions over Hill's bread-and-butter short routes. The Dolphins' offensive line struggles have been more pronounced away from home, limiting Tua Tagovailoa's ability to work through progressions and find Hill on intermediate routes. Additionally, opposing defenses game-plan more aggressively for Hill on their home turf, often bracketing him with safety help that reduces his target share. The consistency of this trend across 18 games suggests it's not random variance but a legitimate pattern. With Hill currently on a 1-game under streak and having shown longer under stretches of 4 games, the data indicates this road reception struggle has staying power.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 61.1% under rate and positive 16.7% ROI create a meaningful edge, though not overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Hill's consistent underperformance versus lines in away games stems from legitimate factors like Miami's road offensive struggles and increased defensive attention. Target under bets when Hill's reception line sits at 5.5 or higher, particularly against defenses that can generate pressure and force quick decisions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyreek Hill's Receptions prop record away games?
Hill's reception props in away games show a 7-11-0 over/under record, hitting overs just 38.9% of the time across 18 games. This represents a significant underperformance that has cost over bettors substantially.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyreek Hill Receptions away games?
Bet under on Hill's receptions in away games. The data shows 61.1% under rate with positive 16.7% ROI, while overs lose money at -25.8%. His road struggles create consistent value on the under side.
What's Tyreek Hill's average Receptions away games?
Hill averages 5.5 receptions in away games, falling 0.3 catches short of typical 5.78 lines. This consistent gap between performance and expectations creates the foundation for profitable under betting in road spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hill reception unders when lines are 5.5 or higher in away games, especially against teams with strong pass rush or secondary coverage. Avoid when Miami is heavily favored and likely to control game script.