Tyler Lockett's home receiving yards props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 37.5% of overs across 16 games with a brutal -7.2 yard average differential. The consistent underperformance at home, combined with a +19.3% under ROI, signals a clear lean under on Lockett's receiving yards in Seattle.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Lockett's home struggles represent one of the more reliable venue-based trends in receiver props, with the veteran wideout consistently falling short of inflated expectations at Lumen Field. The 39.44-yard average against 46.69 lines reveals oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for Lockett's diminished home production, creating sustained value on unders. This isn't simply variance—the 62.5% under rate across 16 games suggests systemic factors at play. Seattle's offensive approach at home appears more conservative, possibly due to crowd energy affecting opposing defenses less than expected, or the Seahawks leaning on their ground game in familiar surroundings. Lockett's current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though regression remains possible given his talent level. The most concerning element for over bettors is the consistency—even when Lockett produces decent yardage, he's rarely exceeding the premium attached to his props at home. The -28.4% over ROI tells the complete story of a market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. However, watch for potential line adjustments as this trend becomes more widely recognized, and be cautious if Seattle's offensive coordinator changes approach or if Lockett's target share increases dramatically due to injuries elsewhere.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 62.5% under rate and -7.2 yard differential create legitimate value, but Lockett's talent prevents this from being a slam-dunk play. Target unders when lines sit above 45 yards, especially if Seattle's running game appears healthy. Main risk is positive regression from a proven receiver who could explode for a big home performance at any time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 20.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 57.5 | 63.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 58.5 | 9.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 43.5 | 65.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 41.5 | 75.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 46.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 40.5 | 77.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 52.5 | 10.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 49.5 | 30.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 58.5 | 92.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 58.5 | 38.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 54.5 | 34.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Lockett's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Tyler Lockett has gone under his receiving yards prop in 10 of 16 home games (62.5% under rate) with a 6-10 over/under record. He averages 39.44 yards against 46.69 average lines, showing consistent underperformance at Lumen Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Tyler Lockett's receiving yards in home games. The 62.5% under rate, -7.2 yard average differential, and +19.3% under ROI create clear value. Target unders when lines exceed 45 yards for maximum edge.
What's Tyler Lockett's average Receiving Yards home games?
Tyler Lockett averages 39.44 receiving yards in home games, falling 7.2 yards short of his average line of 46.69. This significant gap between production and market expectations has created consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Lockett under bets in home games when lines are set above 45 yards and Seattle's ground game appears healthy. Avoid if he's coming off a monster road performance or if key Seahawks receivers are injured.