Tyler Lockett's receiving yards props show a clear under bias, hitting over just 48.5% of the time across 33 games with books setting lines 1.9 yards too high on average. The -7.4% ROI on overs versus -1.6% on unders creates a sustainable edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic overvaluation of Tyler Lockett's receiving production by oddsmakers. Averaging 42.82 yards against lines of 44.71 represents a consistent 4.2% gap that compounds over time. This isn't a recent development—the 16-17 over/under record reflects sustained market inefficiency rather than variance. Lockett's role in Seattle's offense appears more volatile than books account for, likely due to his reputation as a big-play threat masking his actual target consistency. The wide receiver's boom-or-bust nature creates situations where he either explodes for 80+ yards or settles into the 25-35 range, with the latter occurring more frequently than his line suggests. Books may be overweighting his ceiling performances while underestimating how often Seattle's offensive game plan limits his opportunities. The current two-game over streak shouldn't deter from the broader pattern—his longest under streak reached six games, showing this trend has persistence. Without significant offensive philosophy changes or target share increases, this receiving yards undervaluation should continue providing value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.9-yard average miss and superior under ROI (-1.6% vs -7.4%) indicate systematic line inflation. Target Lockett unders when his line sits above 45 yards, as books consistently overestimate his floor production. Main risk is Seattle abandoning their run-heavy approach or Lockett seeing increased red zone targets that boost his yardage ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 28.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 17.5 | 20.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 31.5 | 16.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 20.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 39.5 | 19.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 57.5 | 63.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 58.5 | 9.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 47.5 | 45.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 43.5 | 65.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 41.5 | 75.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 43.5 | 61.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 46.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Lockett's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Tyler Lockett has gone over his receiving yards prop in 16 of 33 games (48.5%) since September 2023, producing a negative -7.4% ROI on overs while unders returned -1.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards all games?
Lean under on Tyler Lockett receiving yards props. His 42.82 average versus 44.71 lines shows books consistently overvalue him by 1.9 yards, creating better value on unders with superior ROI.
What's Tyler Lockett's average Receiving Yards all games?
Tyler Lockett averages 42.82 receiving yards per game across 33 contests, falling 1.9 yards short of his typical 44.71 prop line, indicating books systematically overestimate his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lockett receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 45 yards, as books consistently overvalue his floor production. Avoid during potential high-volume games against weak pass defenses.