Tyler Conklin has delivered consistent over value across his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with a 6-4-0 record. His 3.2 reception average significantly exceeds the typical 2.5 line, creating a +0.7 differential that translates to +14.6% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Conklin's over trend stems from the Jets' evolving offensive identity and his role as a reliable safety valve in their passing attack. The 3.2 reception average against a 2.5 line reveals consistent market undervaluation, likely due to his modest profile compared to elite tight ends. This 0.7 differential is substantial in the tight end reception market, where lines typically hover between 2.5-4.5 for most players. The 60% hit rate demonstrates meaningful edge rather than random variance, particularly given the 10-game sample size provides adequate statistical significance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the positive ROI differential - the +14.6% return on overs versus -23.6% on unders indicates the market consistently prices Conklin's reception floor too conservatively. His current streak of one under doesn't negate the broader pattern, especially considering his longest over streak reached four games while the longest under streak maxed at three. The consistency suggests Conklin has carved out a defined role in the Jets' offense that the betting market hasn't fully recognized, creating ongoing value for astute bettors willing to back the over on his reception totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.7 average differential above typical lines combined with 60% hit rate and positive ROI creates legitimate value, though the recent under and lack of situational splits prevent higher conviction. Target games where Conklin faces softer coverage or the Jets are projected for higher passing volume. Main risk is regression to mean if his role diminishes or the market adjusts lines upward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Conklin has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% hit rate. His 6-4-0 over/under record demonstrates consistent performance above market expectations, with only 4 unders during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the over on Tyler Conklin's receptions. His 3.2 average significantly exceeds typical 2.5 lines, creating a +0.7 differential that has produced +14.6% ROI. The market consistently undervalues his reception floor in the Jets' offense.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receptions last 10 games?
Tyler Conklin averages 3.2 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.5 line. This +0.7 differential represents substantial value in the tight end reception market, where small edges translate to significant long-term profits.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Conklin reception overs when facing softer coverage or when the Jets project for higher passing volume. His role as a safety valve becomes more valuable in games where New York needs consistent short completions.