Tyler Conklin's receiving yards have gone over 50% of the time in his last 10 games with a 5-5-0 record, averaging 25.8 yards against a 22.3 line for a solid +3.5 differential. Despite the slight edge in production, negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. Lean OVER based on the consistent production advantage.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Conklin's receiving yards trend reveals a tight-window player whose production slightly exceeds market expectations despite even over/under results. The 25.8-yard average against a 22.3 line represents meaningful value, suggesting oddsmakers consistently underestimate his floor in the Jets' passing attack. The negative ROI on both sides indicates sharp line-setting, but the +3.5 differential points to exploitable value for disciplined bettors. Conklin's role as Aaron Rodgers' safety valve creates consistent target opportunities, particularly in short-yardage situations where his route-running precision becomes crucial. The 5-5 record masks underlying stability—when Conklin hits his prop, he typically exceeds it meaningfully, while his unders often fall just short rather than completely missing. The current one-game under streak following a four-game over run suggests natural variance rather than role erosion. His production sustainability depends heavily on game script and the Jets' red zone efficiency, where his blocking responsibilities can limit receiving opportunities. The lack of extreme streaks in either direction indicates a player whose usage remains consistent regardless of game flow, making him a reliable target for value-based approaches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +3.5 production differential over 10 games provides legitimate edge despite the even over/under record. Conklin's consistent role in Rodgers' short-passing game creates a reliable floor that markets consistently undervalue. Target games where the Jets project to trail or face strong run defenses, forcing more passing volume. Main risk is game script turning heavily run-focused in blowouts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 21.5 | 16.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 57.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 59.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 33.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 32.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 24.5 | -3.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 42.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 20.5 | 7.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Conklin has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 25.8 yards against a typical 22.3 line, creating a +3.5 production differential despite the even split.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean OVER on Tyler Conklin receiving yards props. His 25.8-yard average consistently exceeds the 22.3 line by 3.5 yards, indicating market undervaluation despite the 5-5 record suggesting efficient but slightly conservative pricing.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Tyler Conklin averages 25.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a 22.3 average line, creating a meaningful +3.5 differential that suggests consistent production above market expectations despite even over/under results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Conklin overs when the Jets face strong run defenses or project to trail, forcing increased passing volume. His safety valve role with Rodgers provides consistent opportunities in negative game scripts and short-yardage situations.