Tyler Conklin's receiving yards props at home present exceptional value, hitting overs at a 62.5% clip across 16 games with a massive +10.8 yard differential above the typical line. The 19.3% ROI on overs signals consistent market mispricing of his home production capabilities.
Expert Analysis
The Jets' home environment appears to unlock a different version of Tyler Conklin, with his 35.38-yard average representing a significant premium over his typical 24.62-yard line. This isn't marginal outperformance—it's systematic market undervaluation. Conklin benefits from MetLife Stadium's controlled conditions and the Jets' tendency to lean more heavily on intermediate passing concepts at home, where crowd noise doesn't disrupt their timing-based offense. The tight end position often sees inflated home production due to increased red zone looks and check-down opportunities when pocket protection improves in familiar surroundings. However, the recent single-game under streak and historically volatile nature of tight end targets present some concern. Conklin's role in New York's offense has evolved throughout this sample, and his target share can fluctuate based on game script and opponent defensive alignments. The 28.4% loss rate on unders suggests the market has been slow to adjust, but regression toward more balanced outcomes remains possible. Still, the sample size provides confidence that this isn't random variance—Conklin genuinely produces more receiving yards in home games, likely due to offensive coordinator comfort with expanded route concepts and increased overall pass attempts in MetLife's controlled environment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Tyler Conklin's home receiving yards props offer legitimate value based on consistent outperformance and positive expected value. The 62.5% over rate combined with the substantial yardage differential suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his elevated home production. Target overs when the line sits around his historical 24.62 average, as Conklin's 35.38 home average provides meaningful cushion. The primary risk remains his inconsistent target distribution and the Jets' evolving offensive identity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 21.5 | 16.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 59.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 32.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 24.5 | -3.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 28.5 | 10.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 20.5 | 93.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 30.5 | 36.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 57.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 35.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 33.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 27.5 | 66.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 24.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 25.5 | 58.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Tyler Conklin is 10-6 on Receiving Yards props home games, hitting the over 62.5% of the time with an average of 35.38 REC YDS vs a 24.62 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards home games?
Based on historical data, the OVER is the recommended play. Tyler Conklin clears the receiving yards line 62.5% of the time with a +19.3% ROI for over bettors.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receiving Yards home games?
Tyler Conklin averages 35.38 REC YDS home games across 16 games, which is 10.8 above the typical prop line of 24.62.
How reliable is this trend?
With 16 games in the sample, this trend has moderate confidence. The moderate sample provides a useful signal, but expect some variance as more games are added.