Tyler Conklin has demolished receiving yards props in conference games, hitting overs at a 57.1% clip with a massive +10.9 yard differential above the average line. His 35.57 yards per game against a 24.71 average line represents consistent bookmaker mispricing. This creates a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic undervaluation of Tyler Conklin's receiving yards production in conference games. His 35.57 yards per game significantly exceeds the 24.71 average line, creating a substantial +10.9 yard cushion that suggests oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his role within the Jets' offensive scheme against familiar divisional opponents. The 57.1% over rate across 21 games provides meaningful sample size, while the +9.1% ROI on overs demonstrates profitable betting value. Conference games often feature heightened intensity and game-planning familiarity, which appears to benefit Conklin's target share and route efficiency. The Jets likely lean more heavily on their reliable tight end against division rivals who know their offensive tendencies, creating additional opportunities for Conklin to exceed modest expectations. However, the recent one-game under streak and the fact that this represents a 57.1% hit rate rather than overwhelming dominance suggests some volatility remains. The -18.2% ROI on unders reinforces that fading this trend has been costly, but also indicates the market may eventually adjust. Conklin's consistent production above the line suggests this isn't random variance but rather a sustainable edge rooted in his expanded role and the Jets' offensive approach in these critical matchups.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +10.9 yard differential above the average line is too significant to ignore, especially with a profitable track record spanning 21 conference games. Conklin consistently finds ways to exceed modest expectations against division rivals, likely due to increased target share and route opportunities. The main risk is potential line adjustment as books recognize this pattern, but current pricing still offers value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 21.5 | 16.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 57.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 33.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 24.5 | -3.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 42.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 20.5 | 7.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 28.5 | 10.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 20.5 | 93.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 25.5 | 10.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 28.5 | 45.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 27.5 | 18.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 57.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 33.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Tyler Conklin has gone over his receiving yards prop in 12 of 21 conference games (57.1% rate) with a 12-9-0 over/under record. His average of 35.57 yards significantly exceeds the typical 24.71 line, creating a profitable +10.9 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet over on Tyler Conklin's receiving yards in conference games. His consistent 35.57 yard average against a 24.71 average line creates strong value, with overs hitting 57.1% of the time and generating +9.1% ROI over 21 games.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Tyler Conklin averages 35.57 receiving yards in conference games compared to an average line of 24.71 yards. This +10.9 yard differential above the typical prop suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers in these divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Conklin receiving yards overs in conference games when lines remain around 24-26 yards. His track record shows consistent value against division rivals, particularly when the Jets face familiar defensive schemes that increase tight end utilization.