Tyler Conklin's receiving yards props present a compelling over opportunity with an 18-13 record (58.1% hit rate) and impressive +8.9 yard differential above the typical 25.03 line. The +10.8% ROI on overs signals consistent value, making this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Conklin's receiving yards props reveal a market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. His 33.94 average significantly outpaces the standard 25.03 line, creating an 8.9-yard cushion that translates to sustainable profits. The 58.1% over rate across 31 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't variance but a systematic undervaluation of his role in the Jets offense. The +10.8% ROI on overs confirms that books struggle to properly price his involvement, likely underestimating his target share and Aaron Rodgers' reliance on tight end safety valves. While the recent one-game under streak might concern some bettors, it's statistically insignificant given his longer patterns of four-game over streaks. The -19.9% under ROI serves as a stark warning against fading this trend. Conklin's consistent production stems from his reliable hands and Rodgers' tendency to check down under pressure, creating a floor that books haven't adequately adjusted for. This edge appears sustainable as long as he maintains his starting role and the Jets continue their current offensive approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8.9-yard differential and 58.1% hit rate create legitimate value on Conklin receiving yards overs. His role as Rodgers' security blanket provides a consistent floor that books undervalue. Primary risk involves potential game script issues if the Jets build large leads, but his target consistency makes overs the preferred play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 21.5 | 16.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 57.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 59.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 33.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 32.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 24.5 | -3.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 42.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 20.5 | 7.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 28.5 | 10.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 28.5 | 55.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 20.5 | 93.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 25.5 | 10.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Conklin's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Tyler Conklin has gone over his receiving yards prop in 18 of 31 games (58.1%) with an average of 33.94 yards against typical lines around 25.03, creating a strong +8.9 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the over on Conklin's receiving yards. The 58.1% hit rate and +10.8% ROI demonstrate consistent value, with his 33.94 average significantly exceeding standard 25.03 lines by nearly nine yards.
What's Tyler Conklin's average Receiving Yards all games?
Conklin averages 33.94 receiving yards across all games, which is 8.9 yards above the typical 25.03 line. This substantial differential explains the strong 58.1% over rate and positive ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conklin receiving yards overs when he's healthy and starting, particularly in games where the Jets face defensive pressure that forces Rodgers to rely on checkdowns and safety valve targets.