Tua Tagovailoa's rushing yards props have been under-friendly, hitting just 44.4% overs across 18 games with a -15.2% ROI on the over side. Despite averaging 5.11 yards against a 4.22 line, the under has delivered consistent value with +6.1% returns.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Tua Tagovailoa's rushing profile that contradicts surface-level expectations. While his 5.11 average suggests easy over hits against the typical 4.22 line, the reality is far more complex. Tagovailoa's mobility comes in spurts rather than consistent volume, creating a feast-or-famine dynamic that favors under bettors. His pocket-first mentality means rushing yards often come from scrambles and designed rollouts rather than predictable rushing attempts. The 0.9 yard differential between his average and the line creates a false sense of over value—books have adjusted to his ceiling games while the floor remains consistently low. The current two-game under streak aligns with his seasonal pattern, where extended over runs (his longest was four games) typically correct with equally long under stretches. Miami's offensive philosophy emphasizes Tagovailoa's arm talent over his legs, and his injury history makes coaches conservative about exposing him to unnecessary contact. The -15.2% over ROI reflects how his big rushing games are outliers rather than the norm, while the steady +6.1% under returns demonstrate the sustainability of betting his floor rather than his ceiling.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +6.1% under ROI and 55.6% under rate provide a sustainable edge despite Tua Tagovailoa's positive yardage differential. His rushing production lacks consistency, making the under the smarter long-term play. Target unders when Miami faces strong pass rushes that limit scramble opportunities or in divisional games where game plans emphasize ball security over mobility.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | -2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 17.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 11.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 25.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tua Tagovailoa's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Tua Tagovailoa's rushing yards props show an 8-10 over/under record (44.4% overs) across 18 games from September 2023 to December 2024, with under bettors enjoying significantly better returns at +6.1% ROI versus -15.2% for overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards all games?
Bet UNDER on Tua Tagovailoa's rushing yards props. The under delivers +6.1% ROI compared to -15.2% losses on overs, and his 55.6% under rate reflects the inconsistency of his rushing production despite averaging above typical lines.
What's Tua Tagovailoa's average Rushing Yards all games?
Tua Tagovailoa averages 5.11 rushing yards per game against a typical 4.22 line, creating a +0.9 yard differential. However, this positive differential is misleading as his rushing comes in unpredictable bursts rather than consistent volume production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tua Tagovailoa rushing yards unders against strong pass rushes that limit scramble time, in divisional games where Miami emphasizes ball security, or during his under streaks which historically balance out his occasional over runs.