Troy Franklin has hit over his receptions line in 60% of his last 10 games, generating a solid 14.6% ROI on overs despite averaging exactly his 1.9 line. The rookie receiver's emerging role in Denver's offense creates value on the over side.
Expert Analysis
Franklin's 60% over rate tells a story of a developing rookie finding his footing in the NFL. While his 1.9 average perfectly matches the typical line, the positive ROI on overs suggests the market has been slow to adjust to his increasing involvement. The 14.6% return on over bets indicates genuine value, particularly impressive for a reception prop where variance is typically lower. The four-game over streak earlier in this sample demonstrates Franklin's ceiling when Sean Payton designs touches for him, while the three-game under streak shows his floor remains concerning. What's most telling is that despite the even split in raw numbers, the over bets have been more profitable, suggesting Franklin's spike games have been more dramatic than his quiet performances. This pattern is common for young receivers as they gain trust and see increased target share in favorable matchups. The lack of available split data limits deeper context, but Franklin's role as Denver's developing slot option means his reception totals are highly dependent on game script and defensive coverage. His prop betting value lies in identifying when the Broncos will need to move the chains through shorter routes, where Franklin's skill set translates to multiple catches even in limited snaps.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Franklin's 60% over rate combined with the 14.6% ROI suggests genuine market inefficiency on a developing rookie receiver. Target overs when Denver faces strong run defenses or in potential shootouts where the Broncos will need to move the ball through shorter routes. The main risk is Franklin's inconsistent snap count and target distribution in a crowded Denver receiver room.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Troy Franklin props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Troy Franklin's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Franklin has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) while staying under 4 times. His 1.9 average receptions exactly matches the typical 1.9 line set by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Troy Franklin Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Franklin's receptions props. The 60% over rate combined with a profitable 14.6% ROI on overs suggests the market undervalues his reception potential as a developing rookie receiver.
What's Troy Franklin's average Receptions last 10 games?
Franklin averages exactly 1.9 receptions over his last 10 games, perfectly matching the typical 1.9 line. However, over bets have generated 14.6% ROI despite the neutral differential, indicating profitable spike games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Franklin reception overs when Denver faces strong run defenses or in projected shootouts. His value peaks when the Broncos need to move chains through shorter routes where his slot skills translate to multiple catches.