Troy Franklin has hit the under in 6 of his last 10 games (40% over rate) while averaging just 21.7 receiving yards against a 19.4 line. Despite the modest 2.3-yard positive differential, the under trend shows +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs, creating a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Franklin's receiving yards trend reveals a classic case of inflated market expectations for a rookie receiver still finding his NFL footing. The 40% over rate masks a deeper story of inconsistent target distribution in Denver's evolving offensive scheme. His 21.7-yard average barely clearing the 19.4 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in upside that hasn't materialized consistently. The stark ROI differential (+14.6% under vs -23.6% over) indicates sharp money has been fading Franklin's props, likely recognizing his boom-bust profile as a deep threat who can disappear for stretches. The recent 4-game under streak before his last outing suggests defensive coordinators have adjusted to limit his big-play opportunities. Denver's commitment to establishing the run game and utilizing veteran receivers in key situations has capped Franklin's floor, making unders more reliable than chasing his ceiling games. The rookie's route tree remains limited, and his snap count fluctuations based on game script create additional volatility that favors under bettors who can capitalize on his quiet performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Franklin's 60% under rate combined with positive under ROI reflects a market still overvaluing his big-play potential while underestimating his rookie inconsistencies. Target unders when Denver faces strong pass defenses or in games where they're favored and likely to control clock. Main risk is a breakout performance inflating future lines, but current data supports continued under betting until the market corrects.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 54.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 20.5 | -1.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 9.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 31.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 29.5 | 6.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 21.5 | 50.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Troy Franklin's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Franklin is 4-6-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaging 21.7 yards against a 19.4-yard average line, barely exceeding expectations despite the positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Troy Franklin Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Franklin's receiving yards. The 60% under rate with +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs shows clear market inefficiency. His rookie inconsistencies and limited role make unders the sharper play.
What's Troy Franklin's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Franklin averages 21.7 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a 19.4-yard average line. While he's technically outperforming by 2.3 yards, the 40% over rate shows this modest edge isn't reliable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Franklin receiving yards unders when Denver faces strong pass defenses or in games they're favored to control. His limited route tree and snap count volatility make quiet games more predictable than breakout performances.