Trey Palmer's receiving yards overs have hit at a dominant 70% rate in home games, averaging 34.5 yards against a 20.8 line for a massive +13.7 differential. This 33.6% ROI over 10 games represents one of the most profitable home splits we've tracked. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Palmer's home dominance stems from Tampa Bay's offensive philosophy in familiar territory, where the Buccaneers consistently push tempo and utilize their full receiving corps more aggressively. The 13.7-yard differential above market lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Palmer's enhanced role in home game scripts, particularly when Tampa Bay controls pace and extends drives. The 70% over rate across 10 games provides robust sample size credibility, while the recent four-game over streak before the current one-game under indicates sustainable production rather than random variance. Palmer benefits from increased target share when the Buccaneers operate with crowd support and familiar timing, creating natural chemistry with quarterback reads. The concerning element is the -42.7% under ROI, suggesting when Palmer fails to hit, he fails significantly. However, the home environment consistently provides the offensive rhythm and extended possessions that allow Palmer to accumulate the intermediate targets that drive his yardage totals. Market inefficiency appears persistent here, as books continue setting conservative lines that don't account for Tampa Bay's home offensive tendencies.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% hit rate and +13.7 average differential represent clear market inefficiency in Palmer's home receiving yards props. Target this when Tampa Bay is favored at home, as positive game script enhances Palmer's target volume. Main risk is the significant under losses when he fails, but the frequency and magnitude of overs outweigh this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 29.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 26.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 56.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 17.5 | 84.0 | +66.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 42.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 12.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 21.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 47.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 8.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 19.5 | 20.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trey Palmer's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Palmer's receiving yards props hit over 7 times in 10 home games (70% rate) with a 7-3-0 record. He averages 34.5 yards against typical lines around 20.8, creating a substantial +13.7 differential that drives consistent over profits.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trey Palmer Receiving Yards home games?
Bet the over on Palmer's receiving yards in home games. The 70% hit rate and +13.7 average differential above the line create a clear edge, supported by 33.6% ROI over 10 games. This represents sustainable market inefficiency.
What's Trey Palmer's average Receiving Yards home games?
Palmer averages 34.5 receiving yards in home games compared to typical market lines around 20.8 yards. This +13.7 differential represents significant value, as he consistently exceeds expectations when playing at Raymond James Stadium with familiar offensive rhythm.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Palmer's receiving yards overs when Tampa Bay plays at home, especially as favorites with positive game script. The combination of crowd support, offensive tempo, and extended possessions creates ideal conditions for his intermediate target accumulation patterns.