Trevor Lawrence's rushing yards props at home present a fascinating contradiction: he averages 18.92 yards versus a 14.27 line (+4.7 edge), yet overs hit just 46.2% (6-7-0 record) with -11.9% ROI. Despite the statistical edge, books are pricing this correctly based on actual outcomes. Lean UNDER.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about why sportsbooks consistently win on Trevor Lawrence rushing props at home. While Lawrence averages nearly 19 yards per game at TIAA Bank Field, significantly above the typical 14.27 line, the over bets have been losing propositions. This disconnect stems from variance in quarterback rushing—Lawrence's home average is inflated by a few explosive scrambling games that skew the mean upward, while the median performance likely sits closer to the betting line. The 2-game under streak suggests recent game scripts haven't favored Lawrence's mobility, possibly due to improved pocket protection or opponents focusing on containing his legs. Jacksonville's home environment typically features better offensive line play and more controlled pocket passing, reducing Lawrence's need to scramble. The -11.9% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been fading this apparent statistical edge, recognizing that raw averages don't always translate to betting value. Books appear to have found the sweet spot where recreational bettors see the inflated average and bet overs, while the actual game-to-game distribution favors unders more frequently than the 4.7-yard cushion would suggest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market has efficiently priced Lawrence's home rushing variance despite the misleading average. Books are exploiting the gap between mean and median performance, making unders the superior long-term play. Target games where Jacksonville is favored by 7+ points and expects to control the game through conventional passing rather than scrambling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 45.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 41.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 17.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 16.5 | 7.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 13.5 | 42.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Lawrence's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Trevor Lawrence has gone 6-7-0 on rushing yards overs in home games, hitting just 46.2% despite averaging 18.92 yards per game. The under bets have generated a positive 2.8% ROI while overs show -11.9% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards home games?
Bet UNDER on Lawrence's rushing yards at home. Despite his 18.92 average exceeding typical 14.27 lines, overs hit just 46.2% with negative ROI. The market has efficiently priced in the variance between his mean and median performance.
What's Trevor Lawrence's average Rushing Yards home games?
Lawrence averages 18.92 rushing yards in home games compared to the typical 14.27 line, creating a +4.7 yard statistical edge. However, this average is skewed by occasional big scrambling games while most performances cluster closer to the betting number.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lawrence rushing unders when Jacksonville is home favorites by 7+ points in controlled game scripts. Avoid when the Jaguars are underdogs or in potential shootouts where Lawrence may need to scramble more frequently to extend plays.